The rapid fall of Afghanistan’s national forces and government has come as a shock to Biden and senior members of his administration, who only last month believed it could take months before the civilian government in Kabul fell — allowing a period of time after American troops left before the full consequences of the withdrawal were laid bare.
Now, officials are frankly admitting they miscalculated.
“The fact of the matter is we’ve seen that that force has been unable to defend the country,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union,” referring to Afghanistan’s national security forces. “And that has happened more quickly than we anticipated.”
The risks for Biden politically are uncertain; a majority of Americans say in polls they support withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, and Biden’s aides have calculated the country shares his weariness at prolonging a 20-year conflict.
Yet the chaotic scenes playing out as that war ends — evoking the fall of Saigon in 1975, an image that haunted Biden as he weighed a withdrawal earlier this year — are certain to trail Biden as the Taliban asserts control over large swaths of the country.
Already, some members of Congress are demanding more information from the administration on how its intelligence could have so badly misjudged the situation on the ground, or why more robust contingency plans for evacuating Americans and their allies weren’t in place.
The notion the civilian government led by President Ashraf Ghani would be unable to withstand the Taliban’s advances is not a surprise. Intelligence assessments over the past year have offered differing timetables for what was viewed by many national security officials as an inevitability.
Biden himself has said repeatedly over the last months, including when Ghani visited him in the Oval Office this summer, that Afghanistan’s leaders would need to reconcile their differences if they had any hope of maintaining power.
Yet the downfall and collapse of the Afghan military has happened far quicker than Biden or his team expected.
Ghani himself left the country on Sunday for Tajikistan, two sources have told CNN. Afghan Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah referred to him in a video statement as “former President.”
American officials have expressed dismay at Ghani’s inability to protect key cities and regions from the Taliban, despite laying out a strategy for doing so during his communications with Biden and other senior US leaders.
Biden himself used a question-and-answer session in the White House East Room a little more than a month ago to downplay the prospect the Afghan government could collapse and the Taliban could take over, saying that outcome was not inevitable. He insisted there would be “no circumstance” in which American personnel were evacuated from the roof of their embassy, rejecting any comparison to the fall of Saigon.
Last week, Biden told reporters there was still a possibility the government could hold up, saying a newly installed military commander was a “serious fighter.” And as recently as Friday, the administration said the Afghan capital of Kabul was not in an “imminent threat environment.”
By Sunday morning, a US official was telling CNN that evacuations of US personnel were well underway, with a goal to get US embassy personnel out by Tuesday morning, if not sooner. CNN spotted US choppers shuttling employees from the embassy to evacuate them from the country amid the Taliban’s advance on Kabul.
The withdrawal of embassy personnel marks a rapid acceleration of the process that had only been announced on Thursday, and is a situation that many State Department security officials expected would have to happen given the speed with which the Taliban has gained territory in Afghanistan in recent days.
Biden, who is currently spending the weekend in Camp David as part of his summer vacation, is not scheduled to return to the White House until next week and has not spoken publicly about the situation in Afghanistan since Tuesday. He has no events on his public schedule listed for Sunday.
On Saturday and Sunday, Biden was briefed on the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan by his national security teams via a secure video conference while he was at the presidential retreat.
A White House official told CNN on Sunday that the President “has spoken to members of his national security team on the situation in Afghanistan and will continue to receive updates and be briefed throughout the day.”
After Saturday’s briefing, Biden authorized additional troops to Afghanistan “to make sure we can have an orderly and safe drawdown of US personnel and other allied personnel and an orderly and safe evacuation of Afghans who helped our troops during our mission and those at special risk from the Taliban advance.”
Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley will brief all members of the US House of Representatives Sunday on the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, according to a senior Democratic House aide.
Biden has remained resolute in his plan to withdraw American troops from the country. In a statement Saturday, he said he could not justify keeping US forces there for the indeterminate time it might take to further train the Afghans to defend themselves.
“One more year, or five more years, of U.S. military presence would not have made a difference if the Afghan military cannot or will not hold its own country,” Biden wrote in a statement from Camp David, where he is spending an extended long weekend. “And an endless American presence in the middle of another country’s civil conflict was not acceptable to me.”
In his statement, Biden lay part of the blame for the current situation on his predecessor, Donald Trump, who brokered a deal with the Taliban to withdraw American troops by May 1, 2021. Aides have said remaining much beyond that date would open US forces to attack.
But the President went beyond merely criticizing the deal; he also accused Trump of leaving the Taliban in its “strongest position militarily” since 2001 and mentioned that Trump invited Taliban leaders to meet at Camp David in 2019.
It was a signal that amid torrents of criticism — from US allies abroad, Republicans, national security experts and human rights groups — Biden was looking to share the blame for how America’s longest war is ending.
Aides say Biden has not shown any inkling of second-guessing himself after announcing in April that all American troops would leave Afghanistan by September 11, a symbolic deadline 20 years after the terror attacks that launched the war to begin with.