News Update

Analysis: This poll number will send Democrats into a panic

Which, ugh, if you are a Democratic candidate looking toward trying to win a race in a swing district or state come that November.
The latest bad news on that front came Thursday in a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. Biden’s approval in the survey slid all the way to 43%, a drop of 6 points in a single month. His disapproval, not surprisingly shot up 7 points to 51%.
Those numbers for Biden — and Democrats — are bad. Obviously. But there’s another number buried in that question that should worry them even more.
And it’s this: 41% of people said they strongly disapprove of the job Biden is doing, while just 19% strongly approve of how he is handling his job as president.

.duval-3{width:100%;position: relative; border: 1px solid #979797; border-left: none; border-right: none;padding: 20px 0; box-sizing: border-box; -webkit-box-sizing: border-box; -moz-box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0 0 20px 0; max-width: 660px;}
.duval-3 a{color: #1a1a1a; text-decoration: none;font-size: 0;}
.duval-3 a:hover {
color: #d9d9d9;
text-decoration: underline;
-moz-text-decoration-color: #d9d9d9;
text-decoration-color: #d9d9d9;
}
.duval-3>a>*{vertical-align: top; display: inline-block;}
.duval-3>a>div{display: inline-block; font-size:1.0666667rem;width: 80%; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 2%;}
.duval-3>a>img{width: 18%; height: auto;}
@media screen and (max-width:640px){
.duval-3>a>*{display:block; margin: auto;}
.duval-3>a>div{width: 100%;}
.duval-3>a>img{width: 50%;}
}

What that number suggests is that there is a major passion gap between the two party bases. Democrats like Biden — some even love him. But Republicans HATE him, with 82% saying they strongly disapprove of how he is doing the job.
That sort of energy disparity between the two party bases is, if history is any guide, a recipe for disaster for Democratic candidates for Congress.
This, from Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones, is illustrative of that — ahem — point:
“In Gallup’s polling history, presidents with job approval ratings below 50% have seen their party lose 37 House seats, on average, in midterm elections. That compares with an average loss of 14 seats when presidents had approval ratings above 50%.”
Recent history affirms that trend. With his approval ratings in the low 40s (at best) then-President Donald Trump’s Republican Party got thumped in the 2018 midterms. Republicans lost 40 House seats — and their majority.
The Point: The best news for Biden and his party is that it’s September 2021, not September 2022. If his job approval numbers in a year’s time are anywhere near where they are today, Democrats will likely be facing a wave perched to come crashing down on them on Election Day.
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Most Popular

To Top